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三种趋势可能助推谷歌股价

来源:天星 更新日期:2009-08-27 点击:

Internet search giant Google Inc. has taken investors on a wild ride since it went public five years ago last Wednesday.

自从五年前的上周三上市以来,网络搜索巨头谷歌(Google Inc.)的涨涨跌跌足以令投资者疯狂。

Since November, it has been a joy ride, with the company's shares up more than 90%. Many expect the good times to keep on rolling even as competitors Microsoft Corp. and Yahoo Inc. join forces to challenge its dominance in Internet search.

自去年11月以来形势一片大好。公司股票至今已累计上涨90%以上。很多人预测即使谷歌的对手微软(Microsoft Corp.)和雅虎(Yahoo Inc.)联合挑战谷歌在网络搜索领域的霸主地位,谷歌的好日子也不会到头。

Three trends should help Google: The U.S. economy is stabilizing, its YouTube video site is close to becoming a real business, and the Internet giant has two years to consolidate its position while Microsoft and Yahoo work out their complicated search alliance.

谷歌将受益于三种趋势:美国经济趋稳,公司旗下的视频网站YouTube即将变成一项真正的业务,另外在微软和雅虎完成一个复杂的搜索同盟之前,谷歌将有两年时间来巩固其在搜索领域的地位。

Last month, Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt suggested the company's business had 'stabilized' in the second quarter, an indication the search advertising market had hit bottom. Search ad prices had also posted a 5% quarter-on-quarter rise.

谷歌首席执行长埃里克·施密特(Eric Schmidt)上月暗示公司二季度业务已“趋稳”,意味着搜索广告市场已经触底。搜索广告的价格也比上季度上升5%。

Citi analyst Mark Mahaney voiced a similar theme this month in a note that highlighted improvements in search advertising demand and pricing, a trend that most benefits Google, which dominates the U.S. search market with a 65% share. Mr. Mahaney has a $580 target for Google shares.

花旗银行分析师马克·马哈尼(Mark Mahaney)在本月的一篇报告中表达了类似观点。报告特别指出了在搜索广告需求和价格方面的上升,作为在美国搜索市场的份额达到65%的巨头,谷歌从中受益最大。

Google's management also raised expectations for YouTube, the user-generated video service it bought for $1.65 billion in 2006. Google said marketers were increasingly placing ads on YouTube's home page, enabling the company to make money on billions of views of partner videos every month, far more than a year ago.

谷歌的管理层对旗下的YouTube寄予厚望。这是一个面向用户的视频网站,谷歌在2006以16.5亿美元收购了该网站。谷歌称营销商们正在YouTube的主页上投放越来越多的广告,公司每月从几十亿次带广告的视频播放中赚取的收入远高于去年同期。

Last week, the company took another step toward making YouTube profitable by striking a deal that will enable the video site to host clips of television shows and movies from Time Warner Inc. The deal calls for the two companies to share ad revenue.

上周,公司朝着YouTube的盈利目标又迈出了新的一步。谷歌和时代华纳公司(Time Warner Inc.)达成协议,允许YouTube播放时代华纳的电视秀和电影片段。两个公司将分享广告收入。

'Investors who seek to own an industry leader that is poised to return to growth -- and is reasonably valued compared to its historic ranges -- may find the current entry point compelling,' said Colin Gillis, an analyst at Brigantine Advisors who recently raised his price target to $600 from $445.

Brigantine Advisors分析师柯林·吉利斯(Colin Gillis)说,想在相对历史价位较为合理的价格区间持有回报增长两不误的行业领头羊的投资者,现在机会来了。吉利斯最近刚刚把谷歌的目标价从每股445美元上调到每股600美元。

To be sure, Google could be hurt if the economic recovery sputters and the U.S. slides into a double-dip recession.

当然,如果经济复苏虎头蛇尾从而使美国陷入双底型经济衰退,谷歌可能会受到冲击。

The company declined to comment for this article.

谷歌拒绝对本文发表评论。

Optimism over Mountain View, Calif.-based Google is reflected in its valuation. Its shares trade at a price almost 22 times analysts' earnings estimates for the current fiscal year, higher than many of its rivals, including Microsoft.

对这家位于加州山景城的公司的乐观预期反映在它的估值上。公司的股价约是分析师估算的公司利润的22倍,高于很多对手,包括微软。

Deutsche Bank analyst Jeetil Patel said in a note last month that Google's higher valuation is justified because its 17% annual profit growth outlook is significantly higher than the roughly 10% average of its peers. Mr. Gillis added that Google's valuation is still relatively low given its past performance and historically high P/E ratio.

德意志银行分析师杰蒂尔·帕特尔(Jeetil Patel )上月在一篇报告中指出谷歌的高估值是合理的,因为其17%的预期年度利润增长率明显高于对手约10%的平均水平。吉利斯补充说从过去的表现和历史最高市盈率考虑,谷歌现在的估值还是相对偏低的。

Of course, Microsoft's recent search pact with Yahoo could get in Google's way. Yahoo, No. 2 in the search market, is replacing its technology with Microsoft's Bing search engine. The Microsoft-Yahoo deal is designed to give third-place Microsoft greater clout to challenge Google.

当然,微软最近和雅虎达成的搜索协议可能会对谷歌造成威胁。搜索市场的二号巨头雅虎正在用微软的Bing搜索引擎取代现有搜索技术。微软和雅虎的交易将使三号巨头微软更有资本挑战谷歌。

But many analysts expect the companies' two-year integration process to give Google an opportunity to extend its lead in search advertising, which accounts for 97% of its revenue, and to close the gap in display advertising, a market in which Google remains a distant challenger to Yahoo.

但很多分析人士预测微软与雅虎为期两年的整合过程将使谷歌有机会扩大其在搜索广告领域的领导地位--该业务收入目前占谷歌总收入的97%--同时缩小在展示广告领域与雅虎的较大差距。

In a sign that it won't be sitting still, Google this month unveiled what it called a 'secret project' to develop next-generation technology. It said the project will 'push the envelope on size, indexing speed, accuracy, comprehensiveness and other dimensions.'

谷歌本月披露了名为“秘密项目”的新一代技术开发计划,显示其不会坐视对手的挑战。谷歌称该项目将“扩大搜索服务的范围,索引速度,准确度,全面性,以及其他指标”。

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