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通胀增加中国货币政策难度

来源:天星 更新日期:2009-12-14 点击:

中国最新公布的一批经济数据中,没多少内容能影响到对2010年中国经济进一步复苏的预期。

There's not much in China's latest batch of economic data to trouble those predicting further recovery in 2010.

不过,11月经济数据──特别是消费者价格指数(CPI)重现增长──可能会为明年的经济政策争论确定基调。

But the figures for November, in particular the return to consumer price inflation, may also set the tone for next year's policy debate.

随着中国经济复苏势头进一步得到确立,中国政府当前的议事日程一直是政策微调。从最近中央经济工作会议上宣布的政策重点来看,中国政府不认为需要明显地改变政策立场。

Policy tweaks have been the order of the day so far for the Chinese government, as the economic recovery puts down stronger roots. The broad thrust of policy announced at the government's recent economic planning pow-wow suggests Beijing doesn't see the need for any dramatic gestures.

但通货膨胀状况可能会让他们感到有些挫败。

Inflation is the potential fly in the ointment.

中国11月CPI同比上升了0.6%,数字本身没什么值得担忧的。但如果和上年同期比较,这个数据可能很快会变得突出:这是中国CPI数据自今年1月以来首次同比走高。

A 0.6% on-year rise in November CPI isn't cause for panic. Still, year ago comparatives could soon make the figures more striking: November's CPI rise was the first since January 2009.

有迹象显示,中国通货膨胀会继续上升。中国的货币供应量仍在以同比将近30%的增速扩张,银行信贷继续上升,只是步伐有所放缓。11月中国银行业新增贷款增长了约430亿美元。

Indications are that inflation will keep rising. Money supply is still expanding at a rate of nearly 30% on-year, while bank lending continues to surge, albeit at a slower pace. New loans rose by around $43 billion in November.

随着中国CPI数据继续上升,中国央行将面临压力,可能会被迫提前实施收紧政策。苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)中国经济学家贝哲民(Ben Simpfendorfer)说,由于通货膨胀预期恶化,中国可能会在2010年第二季度上调利率。

As headline figures of annualized inflation rise further there will be pressure on China's central bank to tighten policy sooner than it might wish. Ben Simpfendorfer, RBS's China economist, says worsening inflation expectations could lead to an interest rate rise in the second quarter of 2010.

中国政府并不愿意这么早就加息,尤其是不愿意在美国之前上调利率。美中两国的利差扩大只会鼓励更多的热钱涌入中国,使得货币政策的制定要更复杂。

An interest rate rise as soon as then is something the authorities will want to avoid, especially as it would likely come some time before similar action in the U.S. A wider rate differential between the U.S. and China would only encourage inflows of hot money and complicate monetary policy further.

因此,在被迫加息之前,中国央行可能会早早下手,努力通过其他途径从经济中吸走资金;他们可能会通过公开市场操作回笼流动性,或是上调银行的存款准备金率。

Well before it's forced to raise rates, the central bank is likely to attempt to suck money out of the economy in other ways, perhaps via open market operations to drain liquidity or raising the level of reserves banks are required to hold.

这种渐进方式正是全球央行官员们所推崇的。但在中国,试图维持政策现状会变得愈发困难。

Such a gradual approach is the kind of policymaking central bankers around the world prefer. But in China, holding the line against the headlines will only get harder.

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