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中国创造就业仍有大空间

来源:天星 更新日期:2010-01-03 点击:

人人都乐于与2009年告别,但2010年的中国经济可能更加艰难。为摆脱全球衰退,中国政府制造了一轮房地产泡沫,其标志是商业地产供给过剩,以及住宅价格不可持续的上涨。后果将在新的一年里显现。

While everyone is glad to put 2009 behind them, 2010 could be an even tougher economic year for China. To climb out of the global contraction, Beijing has engineered a property bubble characterized by oversupply in commercial real estate and unsustainable price gains for residential property. The consequences of this will bite in the new year.

为消化这种过剩并使之显得合理,中国领导人正在努力提振需求,具体途径是加快业已宏大的城镇化进程,减少移民与城镇户籍限制。领导层同时也在寄望于加速城镇化与消费之间的关联。2008年,43%的中国人口属于城镇人口,相比之下,拉丁美洲平均城镇化率为79%,欧元区为73%,美国为82%;中国还有很长的路要走。由于大力推进城镇化,近期内中国将会推动铁矿石和铝等上游原材料价格的上涨,建筑市场也会一片繁忙。但很多人担心,中国城镇几乎所有行业的工厂都已充斥过剩产能,而加快向城镇移民只会加重生产过剩,并溢出到世界市场。

To soak up and justify this excess, China's leaders are trying to stoke demand by accelerating the already epic urbanization trend, reducing constraints on migration and urban registration. The leadership is betting on the connection between accelerated urbanization and consumption, too. In 2008, 43% of China's population was considered urban, versus an average of 79% for Latin America, 73% in the euro area and 82% in the U.S: China still has a long way to go. By front-loading this urban growth, China will bolster prices for upstream raw materials like iron ore and aluminum in the near term and keep construction companies busy. But many people are concerned that China's urban factories already are overbrimming with overcapacity in almost all sectors, and boosting urban migration will just aggravate overproduction, which will spill into world markets.

如果中国各方面都出现了产能过剩,那么大幅提高城镇人口只会让问题变得更加严重。但情况并不是这样。事实上,中国市场中还存在大量经济活动与就业的空白带。如果出台政策解决这些问题,将可以在未来几年在传统和新兴行业创造数千万新的工作岗位,提高国内消费,并让这个国家避免与它的贸易伙伴发生冲撞。

If China is already suffering overcapacity in everything, then indeed swelling the urban population would just exacerbate problems. But it isn't. In fact, there are huge swaths of economic activity and employment simply missing from the Chinese marketplace. Policies that address the reasons for this can create tens of millions of new jobs in traditional and new sectors in the years ahead, adding to domestic consumption and diverting the country from a collision course with its trading partners.

看看这三个行业:医疗、制造业白领和教育。

Consider three sectors: healthcare, manufacturing white collar, and education.

医疗:中国每千人拥有医生1.6名;美国超过23名。并不是中国要照搬美国医疗模式,而是考虑到婴儿潮一代老龄化、饮食、生活方式、寿命和环境污染等改变带来的病死率的不断提高,填补这一空缺至关重要。要想达到美国的比例,中国需要增加接近3,000万名医生,更不用说相配合的护士、疗养专业人员、医院管理人员和组成现代医疗行业的其他数百种细分专业,他们的数量还要从目前很低的水平增加好多倍。

Healthcare: China has 1.6 doctors per thousand people; the U.S. has more than 23. Not that China wants to replicate everything about U.S. healthcare, but given rising pathology and mortality due to aging baby boomers, changes in diet, lifestyle, longevity and environmental contamination, filling this shortfall is critical. Reaching the U.S. ratio would mean adding almost 30 million doctors, not to mention multiples of the current low numbers of supporting staff -- nurses, palliative-care specialists, hospital administrators and hundreds of other subspecialties comprising the modern healthcare sector.

制造业白领:中国的制造业能力广为人知,但它的制造商在研发、质量控制、品牌管理、财务规划、环境健康安全和几乎各种其他白领岗位上投入极少。而正是这些岗位能让一般的产成品变为品牌产品,并为公司带来无形价值,而无形价值占据了经济合作与发展组织(OECD)多数企业资产的三分之一甚至更多。

Manufacturing White Collar: For all its storied manufacturing-sector prowess, China's goods makers skimp on R&D, quality control, brand management, financial planning, environmental-health safety and almost every other white-collar position that turns a manufactured commodity into a branded product and generates intangible value for the firm: value that makes up a third or more of assets in most Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development firms.

虽然中国的流水线产能可能已经过剩,但要把中国工厂生产的一个10美元的无品牌烤面包机变为在欧美零售价75美元的博朗(Braun)牌烤面包机,相关业务职能的产能仍然极度缺乏。

While China Inc. may have overcapacity on the assembly line, it has extraordinary undercapacity in the business functions that turn a $10 generic toaster coming out of a Chinese factory into a $75 Braun-branded toaster sold at retail in the U.S. or Europe.

中国要在这方面与美国比肩,至少需要增加6,000万白领工人。考虑到发展水平不同,我们可以将这个数字减半,但3,000万白领工人的缺口仍然是一个不小的数目。

China would need at least 60 million more white-collar workers to be comparable with the U.S. on this score. Given the different development levels, we might cut that in half, but 30 million missing office-worker bees is a lot of jobs.

教育:教育部门的岗位空缺也是相当巨大。中国每千人有10位教师,美国有22位。要避免城镇化加速在带来更多繁荣的同时加剧收入失衡、社会紧张和犯罪与下层社会等发展问题,向城镇移民工人子女提供基础教育就是一项至关重要的任务。中国目前需要增加1,600万名教师,才能达到美国的比例,另外也需要增加指导老师、咨询顾问、学校管理人员和其他相关岗位。

Education: The missing-jobs number is also huge in education. China has 10 teachers per thousand people, as opposed to 22 in the U.S. Basic education for urban migrant-workers' children is a critical task if accelerated urbanization is to generate more prosperity and not just worsening income inequality, social tension and developmental problems like crime and an underclass. China currently needs another 16 million teachers to reach the ratio in the U.S., as well as attendant teacher-trainers, guidance counselors, school administrators, and other related employees.

这些岗位为何空缺,当然是有原因的。

Of course there are reasons why these jobs don't already exist.

就医疗和教育而言,中国政府选择节省资源或将其转移给国有企业,而不是投入足够多的公共资金,与此同时又不允许民营企业赢利性地投资于这些领域。中国已经有一些廉价民营医院和诊所,但资源和市场份额有限。而在制造业方面,民营与中小企业投资设立白领工人岗位的资金成本,一般是体量更为庞大的国有企业所享受低名义利率的两到五倍。而当它们能够树立品牌和并积累自有知识产权的时候,法规执行与知识产权保护的不到位,又削弱了它们收回投资成本的能力。

In the case of healthcare and education, Beijing has chosen to save resources or transfer them to state-owned enterprises rather than make sufficient public expenditures, while simultaneously preventing private enterprises from investing in these areas as businesses. There are some low-price private hospitals and clinics in China, but with limited resources and market shares. In manufacturing, the cost of capital to build up white collar employment for private and SME firms is typically two-to-five times that of the low nominal rates heavier state-owned enterprises enjoy. And when they are able to build a brand and their own intellectual property, poor enforcement of regulations and intellectual-property protection jeopardizes their ability to recover their investment.

这三个行业仅仅反映了岗位创建潜力的冰山一角;中国绝对不是各行各业都产能过剩。问题在于产能过剩的行业创造的就业岗位并不多。

These three sectors just scratch the surface of new job potential: China is far from suffering 'overcapacity in everything.' The problem is that what is overcapacity doesn't create many jobs.

在7.8亿劳动人口中,钢铁、铝业、水泥、平板玻璃和上游石化行业创造的工作岗位一共才1,400万个,抵不上广东一个省服务业的岗位数量。

Steel, aluminum, cement, plate glass and upstream petrochemicals together create just 14 million jobs in a labor pool of 780 million, which is fewer than the number of service-sector jobs in Guangdong Province alone.

中国消费-城镇化的政策思路是一个正确方向,但必须同时为金融行业纠偏,让它不再让创造就业岗位的行业穷得饿死,而继续为其他资金充足的行业注资。中国如果要让它的城镇化战略成为一种解决方案,而不是一种不可持续的泡沫机器。

China's consumption-urbanization policy thinking is the right way to go, but only if policy simultaneously addresses the biases in the financial sector that starve job-creating sectors while larding other industries with capital. What China needs to make its urbanization strategy the solution rather than an unsustainable bubble machine.

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